By Manu Raju, Politico

September 11, 2009

LAS VEGAS — Sen. John Ensign spent parts of his summer break apologizing to Nevada Republicans for having an extramarital affair with a campaign aide. If Ensign could just “earn people’s respect back,” he told POLITICO, then his political future would “take care of itself.”

But it may not be as easy as that.

Nearly three months after copping to the affair, Ensign — once considered a rising star in the GOP — now has an uneasy relationship with the state party.

Ensign used to be viewed as a kingmaker, even if many in the party establishment considered him aloof and detached from the state’s political machinery. But now candidates don’t want to be seen with him on the stump, and his ability to raise money for the party has been capped by the scandal; Ensign hasn’t held a single fundraiser since details of his affair became public.

And while Ensign himself isn’t on the ballot until 2012, Democrats are ready to make him an issue in 2010. As Sen. Harry Reid seeks reelection, Democratic strategists are eager to present Nevada voters with a stark choice: Return a powerful majority leader to Washington, or be represented by a freshman senator and a veteran who had to give up his leadership post because of scandal.

Ensign has survived the initial scandal and a series of damaging reports that followed it, but Nevadans expect him to face a primary challenger in 2012 — and worse if more harmful revelations spill out.

“He’s got a fragile coalition,” said Ryan Erwin, a top GOP strategist here who has long-standing ties to the senator. “His margin of error is very, very small.”

The same could be said of the state GOP.

Barack Obama used a massive voter registration advantage to defeat John McCain here in 2008. The sitting governor, Republican Jim Gibbons, has been hit by a series of scandals and a messy divorce, and he’s got the rock-bottom approval ratings to show for it. The state party lacks an executive director or a proper headquarters and was in debt through July. Its current chairwoman, Sue Lowden, steps down Sept. 30 to explore a Senate bid, and some of the conservative elements remain sour at the party for scrapping its convention last year amid a rebellion by Ron Paul supporters.

All of this calls for a leader to step up, but those who once thought Ensign would be the one rebuilding the party in 2010 no longer think so. Party leaders instead are turning to a crop of upstart gubernatorial candidates — as well as candidates against Reid — and hope that Reid’s poor poll numbers and dissatisfaction with the handling of the state’s swooning economy will buoy their party in 2010.

“It makes it difficult to be a Republican,” former state Sen. Joe Heck, who is running for governor, said of adding Ensign’s scandal to the laundry list of problems. “But it provides an opportunity for a conservative Republican with no baggage to try to restore the luster to the Republican Party. We’ve always been the dominant party in Nevada. There’s no reason why we can’t return to the days of yesteryear when we were the dominant party.”

Heck said that Ensign could be helpful in the primary race — since he still has some support in GOP circles — but not so much in the general election.

“What might be helpful in the first race may not be helpful in the second race,” Heck said.

But Mike Montandon, who was termed out of office in North Las Vegas and who is also running in the governor’s race, clearly sees Ensign’s support as baggage. Montandon pounced when word made it through Nevada political circles last week that Ensign told a private audience that he would endorse Republican Brian Sandoval, a popular federal judge who steps down from his post Sept. 15 and is expected to announce his candidacy for governor.

National Republicans spent months trying to get Sandoval into the race, and at one point were concerned that Ensign's scandal would deter him from running. And when Ensign seemed to take credit last week with convincing Sandoval to run, one national Republican source said: "John Ensign had about as much to do with getting Brian Sandoval into the race as I had to do with getting Brett Favre out of retirement."

After lambasting Ensign for losing seats in the 2008 election cycle, when he was chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Montandon issued a statement saying that the senator “displayed bad judgment when he had an affair with his best friend’s wife, and now he’s displaying more bad judgment” by endorsing Sandoval.

In an interview, Montandon said that he wouldn’t appear with Ensign on the stump in a general or primary election and that Ensign’s reported endorsement of Sandoval could become a hotter issue if more damaging news of the senator emerges.

“Six months ago, there wasn’t a candidate for any office in this state from city council all the way to the Senate who wouldn’t have given their teeth to have John Ensign support them,” Montandon said.

Sandoval wasn’t available for comment, and Montandon and Heck both said in interviews that Ensign told them in telephone calls that he was endorsing Sandoval, who a Mason-Dixon poll last month found leading his potential opponents. But Ensign told POLITICO that he hadn’t yet offered his endorsement, since Sandoval isn’t yet a candidate.

“I made a positive comment about him. … He’s not even a candidate. I think Brian is a great leader, and I said that. I think he’s one of those people who can help lead our state.”

And Ensign said that even though his personal turmoil occurred during the thrust of the campaign season, it didn’t affect his job as NRSC chairman because “I focus on work and put other distractions aside.”

Not only is Ensign becoming a factor in the governor’s race, but in the race to take on Reid, Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) cited the scandal as one reason why he rejected overtures to enter the race by big shots in Washington.

When Heller ran against Sharron Angle in the 2006 House primary, Ensign declined to offer her his endorsement.

What about now, as the former state assemblywoman gears up for the Senate GOP primary?

“I would not like to bring that into my campaign,” Angle said, referring to the scandal.

But Ensign sees an upside after his summer traveling this state.

“All I know is that I had very good meetings all over our state, and got great feedback. And people want me to focus on my job. And that’s what I heard from Republicans, independents and Democrats ... focus on your job because our state is hurting."