National parties focus on La. Congress election

By Doug Simpson, Associated Press

December 4, 2008

Cameos by President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President Dick Cheney have brought star power to a hurricane-delayed battle between Democrats and Republicans for an up-for-grabs U.S. House seat.

Obama recorded a radio ad to help Democrat Paul Carmouche, while Cheney helped with fundraising and GOP up-and-comer Gov. Bobby Jindal helped with a television ad for Republican candidate John Fleming.

Saturday's election in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District will determine who replaces U.S. Rep. Jim McCrery, a 10-term Republican who's retiring from Congress. The election was pushed back to December after Hurricane Gustav delayed party primaries that had been set for early September.

"The Democrats desperately want to go out on a winning note," said Mike Smith, a Republican political consultant based in St. Francisville. "The Republicans want desperately to retain this seat so they can say they didn't have any additional slippage going into 2009."

The race is one of two for Congress on the Saturday ballot in Louisiana. The other, in the 2nd Congressional District, matches incumbent Democratic Rep. William Jefferson — who won a comfortable party primary victory despite facing federal corruption charges — against Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao. The election in the overwhelmingly Democratic New Orleans area district also was delayed by Gustav.

Analysts said the winner in western Louisiana's 4th District will be the candidate who can boost turnout. After the long presidential campaign, both sides are trying to engage voters who are less interested in politics than they are in spending Saturday watching college football, hunting deer or gift-buying.

"Winning is going to require identifying voters, mobilizing them and getting them to think about something other than Christmas shopping," Smith said.

Carmouche needs support from black voters — many of whom supported rival Democrat Willie Banks, who is black, in the party runoff.

"If Carmouche doesn't get good support from black voters, you can stick a fork in him," said Bernie Pinsonat, a Baton Rouge-based pollster.

But the GOP also had a fractious runoff campaign, with candidate Chris Gorman flogging Fleming over his support for a plan to document and transport foreigners into the country as temporary laborers. Gorman also attacked Fleming's support of the so-called Fair Tax plan, which would eliminate the income tax and impose a new, 23 percent sales tax.

Smith said the Republican infighting might harm Fleming's chances.

Others think Fleming has an advantage in a district where about two-thirds of voters went for Republican John McCain for president.

"I think this hands Fleming a new argument: He'll be able to say, 'Elect me, to check the power of the incoming president,'" said David Wasserman, an expert on House races at the Washington, D.C.-based Cook Political Report.

The other side of that argument: Carmouche could benefit from Obama's victory.

"There seems to be such Democratic momentum on the heels of President-elect Barack Obama that it's going to be difficult to turn the tide," said Smith, who worked for Gorman, Fleming's GOP rival, in the runoff election.

Fleming, a Minden physician, has sought to cast his opponent as a classic liberal, tying him to left-leaning national Democrats and accusing Carmouche of failing to lock up enough criminals in 30 years as Caddo Parish district attorney.

Carmouche, who's running as a conservative Democrat, has defended himself partly by touting the bevy of endorsements he's gotten from fellow DAs and from sheriffs around the state.

Also on the ballot will be two long-shot independents: Gerard Bowen of Bossier City and Chester "Catfish" Kelley of Shreveport.

The Nov. 4 election boosted the Democrats' House majority from 236 to at least 255, with a handful of races yet to be decided. In addition to the two in Louisiana, the Ohio 15th District race remains bound up in a legal challenge and a recount is pending in Virginia's 5th District. In California's 4th District, the Republican candidate declared victory and it is not yet known whether the Democrat will request a recount.